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CITIES — TOMORROW
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Click FETCH ALL CITIES
Select a city OM WI TW NWS PM
MANUAL PRICE CHECK — paste YES/NO prices from Polymarket if live data not loading
Day: Threshold °C: YES¢: NO¢:
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Click FETCH ALL CITIES or select city and click REFRESH
LAST 7 DAYS — ACTUAL TEMPERATURES
Compare against yesterday's forecast to calibrate model trust
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Click LOAD HISTORY
TOTAL BETS
0
NET P&L
$0.00
WIN RATE
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AVG EDGE
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ROI
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What is Edge? How much better your probability is vs what the market implies.
High edge ≥18pp: e.g. you think 70% chance, market prices YES at 47¢ → edge = +23pp. Strong signal if confidence also high (≥70%).
Med edge 10–18pp: Decent gap. Worth a smaller bet. Confidence ≥55% required.
Low edge <10pp: Market broadly agrees. No clear advantage. Skip or wait for a forecast shift the market hasn't repriced.
Side: Auto-calculated. Model > market → BET YES. Model < market → BET NO. ½ Kelly = suggested % of bankroll.
BET LOG
⚠ Bets saved in browser localStorage β€” use EXPORT regularly to back up, or SYNC to Google Sheets above.
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No bets yet — use LOG button in recommendations
MODEL ACCURACY
Tracks edge correctness as you resolve bets. Over time shows whether high-edge bets actually win more.
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Log bets and mark outcomes to build accuracy data